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Outright markets · Deadline: 11 Jun 2026 (kick-off)

★

Recommended Joint Stack

England to win WC 2026 + Harry Kane top scorer

BOTH RECOMMENDED

England odds

Fair: 9.7%

Kane odds

Fair: 10.6%

Joint odds (×)

Assuming independence

Joint fair prob

1.0%

Joint EV: -0.26

* Joint probability assumes independence. If you believe England wins, Kane's probability as top scorer rises significantly given game context. England's path through Group L (Croatia, Ghana, Panama) is one of the most favourable draw positions.

Tournament Winner

Team	Odds	Fair prob	EV
1Argentina	4.5	17.3%	-0.222
2France	5.5	14.1%	-0.222
3Brazil	6.0	13.0%	-0.222
4Spain	7.0	11.1%	-0.222
5EnglandPICK	8.0	9.7%	-0.222	★
6Portugal	10.0	7.8%	-0.222
7Germany	11.0	7.1%	-0.222
8Netherlands	13.0	6.0%	-0.222
9Belgium	20.0	3.9%	-0.222
10Uruguay	18.0	4.3%	-0.222
11Colombia	25.0	3.1%	-0.222
12United States	30.0	2.6%	-0.222

EV calculated after power-method de-vig. Positive EV does not guarantee profit — use as one signal alongside model probabilities.

Top Scorer

Player	Team	Odds	Fair prob	EV
1Erling Haaland	Norway	7.0	13.7%	-0.043
2Kylian Mbappé	France	8.0	12.0%	-0.043
3Harry KanePICK	England	9.0	10.6%	-0.043	★
4Vinicius Jr	Brazil	10.0	9.6%	-0.043
5Lionel Messi	Argentina	12.0	8.0%	-0.043
6Lamine Yamal	Spain	15.0	6.4%	-0.043
7Jude Bellingham	England	16.0	6.0%	-0.043
8Bukayo Saka	England	18.0	5.3%	-0.043
9Phil Foden	England	18.0	5.3%	-0.043
10Pedri	Spain	20.0	4.8%	-0.043
11Rodrygo	Brazil	20.0	4.8%	-0.043
12Federico Valverde	Uruguay	25.0	3.8%	-0.043
13Memphis Depay	Netherlands	25.0	3.8%	-0.043
14Christian Pulisic	United States	30.0	3.2%	-0.043
15Sebastián Villa	Colombia	35.0	2.7%	-0.043

Odds approximate · last updated manually · source: Betfair/Pinnacle · de-vigged with power method