Group AGroup
Mexico vs South Africa
Thu 11 Jun, 20:00 UTC · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Home win (model)
62.5%
MEX · ELO 1682
Draw (model)
25.2%
Away win (model)
12.4%
RSA · ELO 1595
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 22.29 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Mexico
1.40
Fair: 1.44 (69.4%)
-2.8% vs mkt
Draw
4.40
Fair: 4.98 (20.1%)
-11.7% vs mkt
South Africa
8.00
Fair: 9.53 (10.5%)
-16.0% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:25:20.639Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 49
Draw: 125
Away win: 148
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%13.1
5%7.4
2%2.9
0%0.6
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
15%7.5
11%14.3★
3%4.9
1%1.0
0%0.2
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
14%6.9
9%4.4
3%3.6
1%0.9
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
8%3.9
5%2.5
2%0.8
0%0.4
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
3%1.7
2%1.1
1%0.3
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.6
1%0.4
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.2
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.72 · λ_away = 0.64 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 11.4% | 125 | +70 | 22.29 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.5% | 125 | +70 | 20.48 | |
| 2–0 | 14.0% | 49 | +70 | 16.64 | |
| 1–0 | 15.2% | 49 | +50 | 15.08 | |
| 0–1 | 5.0% | 148 | +70 | 10.92 | |
| 2–1 | 8.9% | 49 | +70 | 10.63 | |
| 3–0 | 8.0% | 49 | +70 | 9.53 | |
| 1–2 | 3.3% | 148 | +100 | 8.23 | |
| 2–2 | 2.9% | 125 | +100 | 6.42 | |
| 3–1 | 5.1% | 49 | +70 | 6.09 |