Group BGroup
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar
Sun 28 Jun, 23:00 UTC · BC Place, Vancouver
Home win (model)
39.9%
BIH · ELO 1620
Draw (model)
30.3%
Away win (model)
29.8%
QAT · ELO 1570
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.75 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
9%0.4
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
11%0.3
14%0.7★
7%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
8%0.2
8%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
3%0.1
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.29 · λ_away = 1.08 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.3% | 5 | +70 | 10.75 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.7% | 5 | +70 | 8.01 | |
| 1–0 | 10.8% | 3 | +70 | 7.85 | |
| 0–1 | 8.8% | 4 | +70 | 6.53 | |
| 2–1 | 8.4% | 3 | +70 | 6.12 | |
| 2–0 | 7.8% | 3 | +70 | 5.67 | |
| 1–2 | 7.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.21 | |
| 2–2 | 4.5% | 5 | +100 | 4.76 | |
| 0–2 | 5.5% | 4 | +70 | 4.05 | |
| 3–1 | 3.6% | 3 | +100 | 3.71 |