Group CGroup
Haiti vs Scotland
Sat 13 Jun, 17:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
44.1%
HAI · ELO 1535
Draw (model)
29.8%
Away win (model)
26.2%
SCO · ELO 1665
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.55 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Haiti
1.95
Fair: 2.05 (48.7%)
-5.1% vs mkt
Draw
3.30
Fair: 3.62 (27.6%)
-8.9% vs mkt
Scotland
3.80
Fair: 4.22 (23.7%)
-9.9% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
8%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
11%0.3
14%0.7★
6%0.3
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
9%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
4%0.1
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.38 · λ_away = 1.01 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.1% | 5 | +70 | 10.55 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 11.4% | 3 | +70 | 8.35 | |
| 0–0 | 10.5% | 5 | +70 | 7.89 | |
| 2–1 | 8.8% | 3 | +70 | 6.42 | |
| 2–0 | 8.7% | 3 | +70 | 6.38 | |
| 0–1 | 8.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.93 | |
| 0–2 | 4.7% | 4 | +100 | 4.86 | |
| 1–2 | 6.4% | 4 | +70 | 4.76 | |
| 2–2 | 4.4% | 5 | +100 | 4.64 | |
| 3–1 | 4.0% | 3 | +100 | 4.15 |