Group CGroup
Brazil vs Haiti
Sun 21 Jun, 20:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
65.8%
BRA · ELO 1845
Draw (model)
22.7%
Away win (model)
11.5%
HAI · ELO 1535
Recommended pick
2–0
EV 9.97 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Brazil
1.42
Fair: 1.43 (69.9%)
-0.7% vs mkt
Draw
5.20
Fair: 5.37 (18.6%)
-3.1% vs mkt
Haiti
8.40
Fair: 8.75 (11.4%)
-4.0% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
8%0.4
4%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
13%0.4
11%0.5★
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
14%0.4
9%0.3
3%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
9%0.3
6%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
4%0.1
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
2%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.92 · λ_away = 0.68 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–0 | 13.7% | 3 | +70 | 9.97 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 13.2% | 3 | +70 | 9.67 | |
| 1–1 | 10.7% | 5 | +70 | 8.01 | |
| 2–1 | 9.3% | 3 | +70 | 6.81 | |
| 3–0 | 8.7% | 3 | +70 | 6.38 | |
| 0–0 | 8.4% | 5 | +70 | 6.28 | |
| 3–1 | 6.0% | 3 | +70 | 4.36 | |
| 4–0 | 4.2% | 3 | +100 | 4.32 | |
| 0–1 | 4.1% | 4 | +100 | 4.25 | |
| 1–2 | 3.3% | 4 | +100 | 3.45 |