Group CGroup
Morocco vs Scotland
Sun 21 Jun, 23:00 UTC · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Home win (model)
59.5%
MAR · ELO 1705
Draw (model)
26.2%
Away win (model)
14.4%
SCO · ELO 1665
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 10.59 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Morocco
1.45
Fair: 1.49 (67.3%)
-2.4% vs mkt
Draw
4.50
Fair: 4.97 (20.1%)
-9.4% vs mkt
Scotland
7.00
Fair: 7.96 (12.6%)
-12.0% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
15%0.4
12%0.6★
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
13%0.4
9%0.3
3%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
7%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.67 · λ_away = 0.70 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 14.5% | 3 | +70 | 10.59 | TOP PICK |
| 2–0 | 13.0% | 3 | +70 | 9.49 | |
| 1–1 | 12.0% | 5 | +70 | 9.04 | |
| 0–0 | 10.5% | 5 | +70 | 7.84 | |
| 2–1 | 9.1% | 3 | +70 | 6.66 | |
| 3–0 | 7.2% | 3 | +70 | 5.27 | |
| 0–1 | 5.5% | 4 | +70 | 4.05 | |
| 1–2 | 3.8% | 4 | +100 | 4.00 | |
| 3–1 | 5.1% | 3 | +70 | 3.70 | |
| 2–2 | 3.2% | 5 | +100 | 3.37 |