Group CGroup
Morocco vs Haiti
Mon 29 Jun, 17:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
49.2%
MAR · ELO 1705
Draw (model)
28.6%
Away win (model)
22.2%
HAI · ELO 1535
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.15 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
7%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
12%0.4
14%0.7★
6%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
10%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
5%0.1
5%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.50 · λ_away = 0.93 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.5% | 5 | +70 | 10.15 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 12.0% | 3 | +70 | 8.76 | |
| 0–0 | 10.1% | 5 | +70 | 7.56 | |
| 2–0 | 9.9% | 3 | +70 | 7.22 | |
| 2–1 | 9.2% | 3 | +70 | 6.71 | |
| 0–1 | 7.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.18 | |
| 3–0 | 4.9% | 3 | +100 | 5.08 | |
| 3–1 | 4.6% | 3 | +100 | 4.72 | |
| 2–2 | 4.3% | 5 | +100 | 4.49 | |
| 1–2 | 5.7% | 4 | +70 | 4.23 |