Group DGroup
United States vs Paraguay
Sat 13 Jun, 20:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
8.9%
USA · ELO 1705
Draw (model)
23.6%
Away win (model)
67.5%
PAR · ELO 1615
Recommended pick
0–1
EV 9.47 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
United States
14.00
Fair: 17.44 (5.7%)
-19.7% vs mkt
Draw
6.00
Fair: 6.97 (14.4%)
-13.9% vs mkt
Paraguay
1.23
Fair: 1.25 (79.9%)
-1.7% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.6
18%0.7★
16%0.7
10%0.4
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
4%0.1
10%0.5
8%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
1%0.0
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 0.49 · λ_away = 1.76 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 17.5% | 4 | +50 | 9.47 | TOP PICK |
| 0–2 | 16.3% | 4 | +50 | 8.78 | |
| 0–0 | 11.4% | 5 | +70 | 8.54 | |
| 1–1 | 10.0% | 5 | +70 | 7.53 | |
| 0–3 | 9.6% | 4 | +70 | 7.07 | |
| 1–2 | 8.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.95 | |
| 1–3 | 4.7% | 4 | +100 | 4.91 | |
| 1–0 | 4.3% | 3 | +100 | 4.39 | |
| 0–4 | 4.2% | 4 | +100 | 4.38 | |
| 2–1 | 2.3% | 3 | +100 | 2.32 |