Group DGroup
Australia vs Turkey
Sat 13 Jun, 23:00 UTC · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Home win (model)
54.7%
AUS · ELO 1650
Draw (model)
27.7%
Away win (model)
17.6%
TUR · ELO 1658
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 10.00 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Australia
1.57
Fair: 1.64 (61.1%)
-4.0% vs mkt
Draw
3.80
Fair: 4.29 (23.3%)
-11.4% vs mkt
Turkey
5.50
Fair: 6.42 (15.6%)
-14.4% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
6%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
14%0.4
13%0.6★
5%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
12%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
6%0.2
5%0.1
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.57 · λ_away = 0.79 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 13.7% | 3 | +70 | 10.00 | TOP PICK |
| 1–1 | 12.9% | 5 | +70 | 9.66 | |
| 2–0 | 11.7% | 3 | +70 | 8.51 | |
| 0–0 | 10.6% | 5 | +70 | 7.98 | |
| 2–1 | 9.2% | 3 | +70 | 6.71 | |
| 3–1 | 4.8% | 3 | +100 | 4.95 | |
| 1–2 | 4.6% | 4 | +100 | 4.80 | |
| 0–1 | 6.3% | 4 | +70 | 4.66 | |
| 3–0 | 6.1% | 3 | +70 | 4.45 | |
| 2–2 | 3.6% | 5 | +100 | 3.80 |