Group DGroup
United States vs Australia
Mon 22 Jun, 17:00 UTC · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Home win (model)
54.3%
USA · ELO 1705
Draw (model)
27.7%
Away win (model)
18.0%
AUS · ELO 1650
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 9.85 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
United States
4.80
Fair: 5.40 (18.5%)
-11.1% vs mkt
Draw
3.50
Fair: 3.85 (26.0%)
-9.0% vs mkt
Australia
1.73
Fair: 1.80 (55.5%)
-4.0% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
6%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
13%0.4
13%0.6★
5%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
11%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
6%0.2
5%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.57 · λ_away = 0.80 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 13.5% | 3 | +70 | 9.85 | TOP PICK |
| 1–1 | 12.9% | 5 | +70 | 9.71 | |
| 2–0 | 11.5% | 3 | +70 | 8.38 | |
| 0–0 | 10.5% | 5 | +70 | 7.91 | |
| 2–1 | 9.2% | 3 | +70 | 6.72 | |
| 3–1 | 4.8% | 3 | +100 | 4.95 | |
| 1–2 | 4.7% | 4 | +100 | 4.91 | |
| 0–1 | 6.3% | 4 | +70 | 4.69 | |
| 3–0 | 6.0% | 3 | +70 | 4.38 | |
| 2–2 | 3.7% | 5 | +100 | 3.88 |