Group DGroup
Paraguay vs Turkey
Mon 22 Jun, 20:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
33.1%
PAR · ELO 1615
Draw (model)
30.6%
Away win (model)
36.4%
TUR · ELO 1658
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.84 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
10%0.4
7%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
10%0.3
14%0.7★
8%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
6%0.2
8%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
2%0.1
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.15 · λ_away = 1.21 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.5% | 5 | +70 | 10.84 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.8% | 5 | +70 | 8.07 | |
| 0–1 | 10.2% | 4 | +70 | 7.51 | |
| 1–0 | 9.5% | 3 | +70 | 6.94 | |
| 1–2 | 8.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.90 | |
| 2–1 | 7.5% | 3 | +70 | 5.49 | |
| 0–2 | 7.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.15 | |
| 2–2 | 4.6% | 5 | +100 | 4.79 | |
| 2–0 | 6.2% | 3 | +70 | 4.53 | |
| 1–3 | 3.2% | 4 | +100 | 3.35 |