Group EGroup
Germany vs Ivory Coast
Sun 14 Jun, 17:00 UTC · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Home win (model)
82.2%
GER · ELO 1775
Draw (model)
15.8%
Away win (model)
2.0%
CIV · ELO 1643
Recommended pick
2–0
EV 12.06 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Germany
6.50
Fair: 7.62 (13.1%)
-14.7% vs mkt
Draw
4.50
Fair: 5.11 (19.6%)
-12.0% vs mkt
Ivory Coast
1.44
Fair: 1.49 (67.3%)
-3.1% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.6
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
22%0.7
4%0.2
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
23%0.7★
4%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
16%0.5
3%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
8%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 2.05 · λ_away = 0.17 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–0 | 22.8% | 3 | +50 | 12.06 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 21.8% | 3 | +50 | 11.56 | |
| 0–0 | 11.2% | 5 | +70 | 8.41 | |
| 3–0 | 15.6% | 3 | +50 | 8.24 | |
| 4–0 | 8.0% | 3 | +70 | 5.82 | |
| 1–1 | 4.2% | 5 | +100 | 4.44 | |
| 2–1 | 3.9% | 3 | +100 | 4.06 | |
| 5–0 | 3.3% | 3 | +100 | 3.37 | |
| 3–1 | 2.7% | 3 | +100 | 2.77 | |
| 0–1 | 1.5% | 4 | +100 | 1.55 |