Group EGroup
Ecuador vs Curaçao
Sun 14 Jun, 20:00 UTC · Rose Bowl, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
47.5%
ECU · ELO 1643
Draw (model)
28.7%
Away win (model)
23.8%
CUW · ELO 1495
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.23 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Ecuador
1.95
Fair: 2.04 (49.0%)
-4.4% vs mkt
Draw
3.50
Fair: 3.81 (26.2%)
-8.1% vs mkt
Curaçao
3.70
Fair: 4.04 (24.7%)
-8.5% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
7%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
11%0.3
14%0.7★
6%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
9%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
5%0.1
5%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.48 · λ_away = 0.98 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.6% | 5 | +70 | 10.23 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 11.4% | 3 | +70 | 8.33 | |
| 0–0 | 9.8% | 5 | +70 | 7.35 | |
| 2–0 | 9.4% | 3 | +70 | 6.83 | |
| 2–1 | 9.2% | 3 | +70 | 6.69 | |
| 0–1 | 7.1% | 4 | +70 | 5.29 | |
| 3–0 | 4.6% | 3 | +100 | 4.75 | |
| 2–2 | 4.5% | 5 | +100 | 4.71 | |
| 3–1 | 4.5% | 3 | +100 | 4.65 | |
| 1–2 | 6.1% | 4 | +70 | 4.49 |