Group EGroup
Germany vs Ecuador
Mon 22 Jun, 23:00 UTC · Rose Bowl, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
77.0%
GER · ELO 1775
Draw (model)
18.7%
Away win (model)
4.3%
ECU · ELO 1643
Recommended pick
2–0
EV 10.46 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Germany
1.11
Fair: 1.12 (88.9%)
-1.3% vs mkt
Draw
9.00
Fair: 11.79 (8.5%)
-23.7% vs mkt
Ecuador
26.00
Fair: 38.81 (2.6%)
-33.0% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
19%0.6
7%0.3
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
20%0.6★
6%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
13%0.4
4%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
6%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.98 · λ_away = 0.32 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–0 | 19.7% | 3 | +50 | 10.46 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 19.3% | 3 | +50 | 10.24 | |
| 3–0 | 13.0% | 3 | +70 | 9.50 | |
| 0–0 | 10.7% | 5 | +70 | 8.03 | |
| 1–1 | 6.9% | 5 | +70 | 5.20 | |
| 4–0 | 6.4% | 3 | +70 | 4.70 | |
| 2–1 | 6.2% | 3 | +70 | 4.55 | |
| 3–1 | 4.1% | 3 | +100 | 4.24 | |
| 0–1 | 2.6% | 4 | +100 | 2.66 | |
| 5–0 | 2.5% | 3 | +100 | 2.62 |