Group EGroup
Germany vs Curaçao
Tue 30 Jun, 17:00 UTC · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Home win (model)
57.8%
GER · ELO 1775
Draw (model)
25.9%
Away win (model)
16.3%
CUW · ELO 1495
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 9.21 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
9%0.5
5%0.2
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
13%0.4
12%0.6★
5%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
12%0.4
10%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
7%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.72 · λ_away = 0.81 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 12.6% | 3 | +70 | 9.21 | TOP PICK |
| 1–1 | 12.2% | 5 | +70 | 9.17 | |
| 2–0 | 11.8% | 3 | +70 | 8.59 | |
| 2–1 | 9.5% | 3 | +70 | 6.96 | |
| 0–0 | 9.1% | 5 | +70 | 6.83 | |
| 3–0 | 6.7% | 3 | +70 | 4.91 | |
| 1–2 | 4.5% | 4 | +100 | 4.69 | |
| 2–2 | 3.9% | 5 | +100 | 4.06 | |
| 3–1 | 5.5% | 3 | +70 | 3.98 | |
| 0–1 | 5.4% | 4 | +70 | 3.97 |