Group AGroup
Mexico vs South Korea
Sat 20 Jun, 17:00 UTC · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
50.7%
MEX · ELO 1682
Draw (model)
28.5%
Away win (model)
20.7%
KOR · ELO 1685
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 9.52 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Mexico
1.70
Fair: 1.77 (56.4%)
-4.2% vs mkt
Draw
3.60
Fair: 3.99 (25.1%)
-9.8% vs mkt
South Korea
4.75
Fair: 5.38 (18.6%)
-11.8% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 1
Draw: 1
Away win: 1
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.1
7%0.1
4%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
13%0.1
13%0.1★
5%0.1
2%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
10%0.1
9%0.1
4%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
5%0.1
5%0.0
2%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.0
2%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.51 · λ_away = 0.88 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.4% | 1 | +70 | 9.52 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 12.7% | 1 | +70 | 9.00 | |
| 2–0 | 10.5% | 1 | +70 | 7.42 | |
| 0–0 | 10.4% | 1 | +70 | 7.42 | |
| 2–1 | 9.2% | 1 | +70 | 6.51 | |
| 0–1 | 6.9% | 1 | +70 | 4.89 | |
| 3–1 | 4.6% | 1 | +100 | 4.65 | |
| 2–2 | 4.0% | 1 | +100 | 4.07 | |
| 1–2 | 5.4% | 1 | +70 | 3.80 | |
| 3–0 | 5.2% | 1 | +70 | 3.72 |