Group FGroup
Netherlands vs Japan
Sun 14 Jun, 23:00 UTC · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco
Home win (model)
28.9%
NED · ELO 1785
Draw (model)
30.8%
Away win (model)
40.3%
JPN · ELO 1715
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.84 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Netherlands
3.60
Fair: 3.95 (25.3%)
-8.9% vs mkt
Draw
2.75
Fair: 2.96 (33.8%)
-7.1% vs mkt
Japan
2.30
Fair: 2.44 (40.9%)
-5.9% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.6
11%0.5
8%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
9%0.3
14%0.7★
8%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
5%0.2
7%0.2
4%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.03 · λ_away = 1.26 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.4% | 5 | +70 | 10.84 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 11.4% | 5 | +70 | 8.54 | |
| 0–1 | 11.4% | 4 | +70 | 8.45 | |
| 1–0 | 9.1% | 3 | +70 | 6.63 | |
| 1–2 | 8.3% | 4 | +70 | 6.14 | |
| 0–2 | 8.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.95 | |
| 2–1 | 6.8% | 3 | +70 | 4.95 | |
| 2–2 | 4.3% | 5 | +100 | 4.49 | |
| 2–0 | 5.4% | 3 | +70 | 3.92 | |
| 1–3 | 3.5% | 4 | +100 | 3.63 |