Group FGroup
Sweden vs Tunisia
Mon 15 Jun, 17:00 UTC · NRG Stadium, Houston
Home win (model)
76.7%
SWE · ELO 1665
Draw (model)
19.1%
Away win (model)
4.3%
TUN · ELO 1635
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 10.62 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Sweden
1.91
Fair: 2.00 (49.9%)
-4.7% vs mkt
Draw
3.25
Fair: 3.55 (28.2%)
-8.4% vs mkt
Tunisia
4.10
Fair: 4.56 (21.9%)
-10.0% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.6
3%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
20%0.6★
7%0.3
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
20%0.6
6%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
13%0.4
4%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
6%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.94 · λ_away = 0.30 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 20.0% | 3 | +50 | 10.62 | TOP PICK |
| 2–0 | 20.0% | 3 | +50 | 10.61 | |
| 3–0 | 12.9% | 3 | +70 | 9.44 | |
| 0–0 | 11.3% | 5 | +70 | 8.46 | |
| 1–1 | 6.8% | 5 | +70 | 5.13 | |
| 4–0 | 6.3% | 3 | +70 | 4.57 | |
| 2–1 | 6.0% | 3 | +70 | 4.40 | |
| 3–1 | 3.9% | 3 | +100 | 4.01 | |
| 0–1 | 2.6% | 4 | +100 | 2.69 | |
| 5–0 | 2.4% | 3 | +100 | 2.50 |