Group FGroup
Netherlands vs Sweden
Tue 23 Jun, 20:00 UTC · NRG Stadium, Houston
Home win (model)
64.7%
NED · ELO 1785
Draw (model)
24.2%
Away win (model)
11.1%
SWE · ELO 1665
Recommended pick
2–0
EV 10.61 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Netherlands
1.35
Fair: 1.38 (72.6%)
-2.1% vs mkt
Draw
5.00
Fair: 5.59 (17.9%)
-10.5% vs mkt
Sweden
9.00
Fair: 10.47 (9.5%)
-14.1% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
15%0.5
11%0.5★
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
15%0.4
9%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
9%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.78 · λ_away = 0.61 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–0 | 14.5% | 3 | +70 | 10.61 | TOP PICK |
| 1–1 | 10.9% | 5 | +70 | 8.21 | |
| 1–0 | 15.4% | 3 | +50 | 8.14 | |
| 0–0 | 10.2% | 5 | +70 | 7.64 | |
| 2–1 | 8.8% | 3 | +70 | 6.46 | |
| 3–0 | 8.6% | 3 | +70 | 6.29 | |
| 0–1 | 4.6% | 4 | +100 | 4.78 | |
| 4–0 | 3.8% | 3 | +100 | 3.95 | |
| 3–1 | 5.2% | 3 | +70 | 3.83 | |
| 1–2 | 3.0% | 4 | +100 | 3.15 |