Group FGroup
Japan vs Tunisia
Tue 23 Jun, 23:00 UTC · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco
Home win (model)
15.9%
JPN · ELO 1715
Draw (model)
27.3%
Away win (model)
56.8%
TUN · ELO 1635
Recommended pick
0–1
EV 10.69 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Japan
7.00
Fair: 7.90 (12.7%)
-11.4% vs mkt
Draw
4.10
Fair: 4.48 (22.3%)
-8.4% vs mkt
Tunisia
1.50
Fair: 1.54 (65.0%)
-2.5% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
14%0.6
12%0.5
7%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
6%0.2
13%0.6★
9%0.4
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
3%0.1
4%0.1
3%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 0.73 · λ_away = 1.59 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 14.4% | 4 | +70 | 10.69 | TOP PICK |
| 1–1 | 12.6% | 5 | +70 | 9.42 | |
| 0–2 | 12.4% | 4 | +70 | 9.18 | |
| 0–0 | 10.9% | 5 | +70 | 8.21 | |
| 1–2 | 9.1% | 4 | +70 | 6.72 | |
| 1–3 | 4.8% | 4 | +100 | 5.01 | |
| 0–3 | 6.6% | 4 | +70 | 4.87 | |
| 1–0 | 6.0% | 3 | +70 | 4.40 | |
| 2–1 | 4.2% | 3 | +100 | 4.30 | |
| 2–2 | 3.3% | 5 | +100 | 3.49 |