Group GGroup
Belgium vs Egypt
Mon 15 Jun, 20:00 UTC · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Home win (model)
54.9%
BEL · ELO 1752
Draw (model)
27.2%
Away win (model)
17.9%
EGY · ELO 1625
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 9.59 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Belgium
1.62
Fair: 1.69 (59.2%)
-4.1% vs mkt
Draw
3.80
Fair: 4.27 (23.4%)
-11.0% vs mkt
Egypt
5.00
Fair: 5.75 (17.4%)
-13.1% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
6%0.2
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
13%0.4
13%0.6★
5%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
11%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
6%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.61 · λ_away = 0.82 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.8% | 5 | +70 | 9.59 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 13.0% | 3 | +70 | 9.48 | |
| 2–0 | 11.4% | 3 | +70 | 8.32 | |
| 0–0 | 9.9% | 5 | +70 | 7.46 | |
| 2–1 | 9.4% | 3 | +70 | 6.83 | |
| 1–2 | 4.8% | 4 | +100 | 4.96 | |
| 0–1 | 6.1% | 4 | +70 | 4.48 | |
| 3–0 | 6.1% | 3 | +70 | 4.47 | |
| 2–2 | 3.8% | 5 | +100 | 4.04 | |
| 3–1 | 5.0% | 3 | +70 | 3.67 |