Group GGroup
Iran vs New Zealand
Mon 15 Jun, 23:00 UTC · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Home win (model)
15.2%
IRN · ELO 1625
Draw (model)
26.8%
Away win (model)
58.0%
NZL · ELO 1555
Recommended pick
0–1
EV 10.77 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Iran
7.00
Fair: 8.22 (12.2%)
-14.9% vs mkt
Draw
4.33
Fair: 4.89 (20.5%)
-11.4% vs mkt
New Zealand
1.44
Fair: 1.48 (67.4%)
-3.0% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
15%0.6
13%0.5
7%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
6%0.2
12%0.6★
9%0.4
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
2%0.1
4%0.1
3%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 0.72 · λ_away = 1.62 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 14.6% | 4 | +70 | 10.77 | TOP PICK |
| 0–2 | 12.7% | 4 | +70 | 9.40 | |
| 1–1 | 12.3% | 5 | +70 | 9.25 | |
| 0–0 | 10.8% | 5 | +70 | 8.09 | |
| 1–2 | 9.1% | 4 | +70 | 6.72 | |
| 1–3 | 4.9% | 4 | +100 | 5.10 | |
| 0–3 | 6.9% | 4 | +70 | 5.08 | |
| 1–0 | 5.8% | 3 | +70 | 4.23 | |
| 2–1 | 4.0% | 3 | +100 | 4.13 | |
| 2–2 | 3.2% | 5 | +100 | 3.41 |