Group GGroup
Belgium vs Iran
Wed 24 Jun, 17:00 UTC · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Home win (model)
61.3%
BEL · ELO 1752
Draw (model)
25.4%
Away win (model)
13.3%
IRN · ELO 1625
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 10.69 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Belgium
1.46
Fair: 1.49 (66.9%)
-2.3% vs mkt
Draw
4.30
Fair: 4.70 (21.3%)
-8.5% vs mkt
Iran
7.50
Fair: 8.48 (11.8%)
-11.6% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
15%0.4
12%0.6★
4%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
13%0.4
9%0.3
3%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
8%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.71 · λ_away = 0.68 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 14.6% | 3 | +70 | 10.69 | TOP PICK |
| 2–0 | 13.5% | 3 | +70 | 9.82 | |
| 1–1 | 11.7% | 5 | +70 | 8.76 | |
| 0–0 | 10.2% | 5 | +70 | 7.67 | |
| 2–1 | 9.1% | 3 | +70 | 6.64 | |
| 3–0 | 7.7% | 3 | +70 | 5.61 | |
| 0–1 | 5.1% | 4 | +70 | 3.80 | |
| 3–1 | 5.2% | 3 | +70 | 3.79 | |
| 1–2 | 3.6% | 4 | +100 | 3.74 | |
| 4–0 | 3.3% | 3 | +100 | 3.39 |