Group AGroup
South Africa vs Czechia
Sat 20 Jun, 20:00 UTC · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Home win (model)
55.3%
RSA · ELO 1595
Draw (model)
27.5%
Away win (model)
17.2%
CZE · ELO 1645
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 9.74 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
South Africa
1.54
Fair: 1.58 (63.3%)
-2.5% vs mkt
Draw
4.25
Fair: 4.62 (21.6%)
-8.0% vs mkt
Czechia
6.00
Fair: 6.66 (15.0%)
-9.8% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 1
Draw: 1
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.1
6%0.2★
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
14%0.1
13%0.1
5%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
12%0.1
9%0.1
4%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
6%0.1
5%0.0
2%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.0
2%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.58 · λ_away = 0.78 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 13.7% | 1 | +70 | 9.74 | TOP PICK |
| 1–1 | 12.8% | 1 | +70 | 9.08 | |
| 2–0 | 11.8% | 1 | +70 | 8.37 | |
| 0–0 | 10.6% | 1 | +70 | 7.50 | |
| 2–1 | 9.2% | 1 | +70 | 6.54 | |
| 3–1 | 4.9% | 1 | +100 | 4.91 | |
| 1–2 | 4.5% | 4 | +100 | 4.72 | |
| 0–1 | 6.2% | 4 | +70 | 4.57 | |
| 3–0 | 6.2% | 1 | +70 | 4.42 | |
| 2–2 | 3.6% | 1 | +100 | 3.63 |