Group GGroup
Egypt vs New Zealand
Wed 24 Jun, 20:00 UTC · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Home win (model)
44.4%
EGY · ELO 1625
Draw (model)
29.6%
Away win (model)
26.0%
NZL · ELO 1555
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.52 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Egypt
1.57
Fair: 1.61 (62.0%)
-2.7% vs mkt
Draw
4.00
Fair: 4.34 (23.0%)
-7.9% vs mkt
New Zealand
6.00
Fair: 6.68 (15.0%)
-10.1% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
8%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
11%0.3
14%0.7★
6%0.3
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
9%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
4%0.1
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.39 · λ_away = 1.00 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.0% | 5 | +70 | 10.52 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 11.4% | 3 | +70 | 8.33 | |
| 0–0 | 10.4% | 5 | +70 | 7.82 | |
| 2–1 | 8.8% | 3 | +70 | 6.45 | |
| 2–0 | 8.8% | 3 | +70 | 6.42 | |
| 0–1 | 7.9% | 4 | +70 | 5.86 | |
| 0–2 | 4.6% | 4 | +100 | 4.80 | |
| 1–2 | 6.4% | 4 | +70 | 4.74 | |
| 2–2 | 4.4% | 5 | +100 | 4.66 | |
| 3–1 | 4.1% | 3 | +100 | 4.21 |