Group GGroup
Belgium vs New Zealand
Wed 01 Jul, 17:00 UTC · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Home win (model)
51.3%
BEL · ELO 1752
Draw (model)
28.0%
Away win (model)
20.7%
NZL · ELO 1555
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 9.94 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
7%0.3
4%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
12%0.4
13%0.7★
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
10%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
5%0.2
5%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.55 · λ_away = 0.90 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.3% | 5 | +70 | 9.94 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 12.2% | 3 | +70 | 8.91 | |
| 2–0 | 10.4% | 3 | +70 | 7.57 | |
| 0–0 | 9.9% | 5 | +70 | 7.41 | |
| 2–1 | 9.3% | 3 | +70 | 6.80 | |
| 3–1 | 4.8% | 3 | +100 | 4.95 | |
| 0–1 | 6.6% | 4 | +70 | 4.87 | |
| 2–2 | 4.2% | 5 | +100 | 4.40 | |
| 1–2 | 5.4% | 4 | +70 | 4.01 | |
| 3–0 | 5.3% | 3 | +70 | 3.90 |