Group GGroup
Egypt vs Iran
Wed 01 Jul, 17:00 UTC · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Home win (model)
36.2%
EGY · ELO 1625
Draw (model)
30.6%
Away win (model)
33.3%
IRN · ELO 1625
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.84 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
10%0.4
6%0.3
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
10%0.3
14%0.7★
8%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
7%0.2
8%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
3%0.1
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.21 · λ_away = 1.15 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.5% | 5 | +70 | 10.84 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.8% | 5 | +70 | 8.07 | |
| 1–0 | 10.1% | 3 | +70 | 7.38 | |
| 0–1 | 9.6% | 4 | +70 | 7.07 | |
| 2–1 | 7.9% | 3 | +70 | 5.80 | |
| 1–2 | 7.6% | 4 | +70 | 5.59 | |
| 2–0 | 6.9% | 3 | +70 | 5.04 | |
| 2–2 | 4.6% | 5 | +100 | 4.80 | |
| 0–2 | 6.3% | 4 | +70 | 4.63 | |
| 3–1 | 3.2% | 3 | +100 | 3.30 |