Group HGroup
Spain vs Cape Verde
Tue 16 Jun, 17:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
51.8%
ESP · ELO 1818
Draw (model)
27.5%
Away win (model)
20.7%
CPV · ELO 1575
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 9.81 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Spain
1.85
Fair: 1.93 (51.8%)
-4.1% vs mkt
Draw
3.45
Fair: 3.76 (26.6%)
-8.2% vs mkt
Cape Verde
4.20
Fair: 4.64 (21.6%)
-9.4% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
9%0.5
6%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
12%0.4
13%0.7★
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
10%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
5%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.59 · λ_away = 0.92 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.1% | 5 | +70 | 9.81 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 11.7% | 3 | +70 | 8.52 | |
| 2–0 | 10.2% | 3 | +70 | 7.47 | |
| 0–0 | 9.3% | 5 | +70 | 6.96 | |
| 2–1 | 9.5% | 3 | +70 | 6.90 | |
| 0–1 | 6.3% | 4 | +70 | 4.65 | |
| 2–2 | 4.4% | 5 | +100 | 4.59 | |
| 1–2 | 5.5% | 4 | +70 | 4.06 | |
| 3–0 | 5.4% | 3 | +70 | 3.96 | |
| 3–1 | 5.0% | 3 | +70 | 3.66 |