Group HGroup
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay
Tue 16 Jun, 20:00 UTC · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
59.3%
KSA · ELO 1625
Draw (model)
26.4%
Away win (model)
14.3%
URU · ELO 1745
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 10.86 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Saudi Arabia
1.40
Fair: 1.44 (69.4%)
-2.9% vs mkt
Draw
4.50
Fair: 5.13 (19.5%)
-12.4% vs mkt
Uruguay
7.50
Fair: 8.95 (11.2%)
-16.2% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
6%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
15%0.4
12%0.6★
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
13%0.4
9%0.3
3%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
7%0.2
5%0.1
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.64 · λ_away = 0.69 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 14.9% | 3 | +70 | 10.86 | TOP PICK |
| 2–0 | 13.1% | 3 | +70 | 9.58 | |
| 1–1 | 12.1% | 5 | +70 | 9.06 | |
| 0–0 | 10.8% | 5 | +70 | 8.12 | |
| 2–1 | 9.0% | 3 | +70 | 6.59 | |
| 3–0 | 7.2% | 3 | +70 | 5.25 | |
| 3–1 | 4.9% | 3 | +100 | 5.09 | |
| 0–1 | 5.6% | 4 | +70 | 4.14 | |
| 1–2 | 3.8% | 4 | +100 | 3.93 | |
| 2–2 | 3.1% | 5 | +100 | 3.26 |