Group HGroup
Spain vs Saudi Arabia
Wed 24 Jun, 23:00 UTC · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
71.0%
ESP · ELO 1818
Draw (model)
21.2%
Away win (model)
7.7%
KSA · ELO 1625
Recommended pick
2–0
EV 8.74 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Spain
8.00
Fair: 9.42 (10.6%)
-15.1% vs mkt
Draw
5.00
Fair: 5.68 (17.6%)
-11.9% vs mkt
Saudi Arabia
1.36
Fair: 1.39 (71.8%)
-2.4% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
4%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
16%0.5
9%0.5
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
16%0.5★
8%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
11%0.3
5%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
5%0.2
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.93 · λ_away = 0.50 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–0 | 16.5% | 3 | +50 | 8.74 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 16.2% | 3 | +50 | 8.61 | |
| 3–0 | 10.6% | 3 | +70 | 7.74 | |
| 0–0 | 9.7% | 5 | +70 | 7.27 | |
| 1–1 | 9.3% | 5 | +70 | 6.98 | |
| 2–1 | 8.2% | 3 | +70 | 5.96 | |
| 3–1 | 5.2% | 3 | +70 | 3.83 | |
| 4–0 | 5.1% | 3 | +70 | 3.73 | |
| 0–1 | 3.5% | 4 | +100 | 3.68 | |
| 4–1 | 2.5% | 3 | +100 | 2.61 |