Group HGroup
Cape Verde vs Uruguay
Thu 25 Jun, 17:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
24.2%
CPV · ELO 1575
Draw (model)
29.0%
Away win (model)
46.8%
URU · ELO 1745
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.31 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Cape Verde
4.20
Fair: 4.57 (21.9%)
-8.0% vs mkt
Draw
3.40
Fair: 3.65 (27.4%)
-6.9% vs mkt
Uruguay
1.90
Fair: 1.97 (50.7%)
-3.7% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
12%0.5
9%0.4
4%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
7%0.2
14%0.7★
9%0.4
4%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
4%0.1
6%0.2
4%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
1%0.0
2%0.1
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 0.98 · λ_away = 1.45 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.8% | 5 | +70 | 10.31 | TOP PICK |
| 0–1 | 11.5% | 4 | +70 | 8.53 | |
| 0–0 | 10.1% | 5 | +70 | 7.54 | |
| 0–2 | 9.3% | 4 | +70 | 6.87 | |
| 1–2 | 9.1% | 4 | +70 | 6.72 | |
| 1–0 | 7.4% | 3 | +70 | 5.37 | |
| 0–3 | 4.5% | 4 | +100 | 4.67 | |
| 2–2 | 4.4% | 5 | +100 | 4.66 | |
| 1–3 | 4.4% | 4 | +100 | 4.57 | |
| 2–1 | 6.1% | 3 | +70 | 4.46 |