Group HGroup
Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia
Wed 01 Jul, 20:00 UTC · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
32.6%
CPV · ELO 1575
Draw (model)
30.5%
Away win (model)
36.9%
KSA · ELO 1625
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.83 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
10%0.4
7%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
9%0.3
14%0.7★
8%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
6%0.2
7%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
2%0.1
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.14 · λ_away = 1.22 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.4% | 5 | +70 | 10.83 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.8% | 5 | +70 | 8.07 | |
| 0–1 | 10.2% | 4 | +70 | 7.58 | |
| 1–0 | 9.4% | 3 | +70 | 6.87 | |
| 1–2 | 8.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.95 | |
| 2–1 | 7.5% | 3 | +70 | 5.44 | |
| 0–2 | 7.1% | 4 | +70 | 5.24 | |
| 2–2 | 4.6% | 5 | +100 | 4.79 | |
| 2–0 | 6.1% | 3 | +70 | 4.45 | |
| 1–3 | 3.3% | 4 | +100 | 3.41 |