Group IGroup
France vs Senegal
Tue 16 Jun, 23:00 UTC · Rose Bowl, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
9.7%
FRA · ELO 1860
Draw (model)
23.9%
Away win (model)
66.5%
SEN · ELO 1700
Recommended pick
0–1
EV 9.05 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
France
14.99
Fair: 15.80 (6.3%)
-5.1% vs mkt
Draw
7.20
Fair: 7.48 (13.4%)
-3.8% vs mkt
Senegal
1.24
Fair: 1.25 (80.3%)
-0.4% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
17%0.7★
16%0.6
9%0.4
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
4%0.1
10%0.5
8%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
1%0.0
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 0.53 · λ_away = 1.77 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 16.8% | 4 | +50 | 9.05 | TOP PICK |
| 0–2 | 15.6% | 4 | +50 | 8.44 | |
| 0–0 | 11.0% | 5 | +70 | 8.23 | |
| 1–1 | 10.4% | 5 | +70 | 7.80 | |
| 0–3 | 9.2% | 4 | +70 | 6.81 | |
| 1–2 | 8.4% | 4 | +70 | 6.18 | |
| 1–3 | 4.9% | 4 | +100 | 5.11 | |
| 1–0 | 4.4% | 3 | +100 | 4.54 | |
| 0–4 | 4.1% | 4 | +100 | 4.23 | |
| 2–1 | 2.5% | 3 | +100 | 2.60 |