Group AGroup
Mexico vs Czechia
Sun 28 Jun, 20:00 UTC · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Home win (model)
7.7%
MEX · ELO 1682
Draw (model)
22.6%
Away win (model)
69.7%
CZE · ELO 1645
Recommended pick
0–1
EV 9.69 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Mexico
3.40
Fair: 3.69 (27.1%)
-7.8% vs mkt
Draw
3.25
Fair: 3.51 (28.5%)
-7.5% vs mkt
Czechia
2.14
Fair: 2.25 (44.4%)
-4.9% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.6
18%0.7★
17%0.7
10%0.4
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
4%0.1
9%0.5
8%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
1%0.0
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 0.46 · λ_away = 1.81 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 17.9% | 4 | +50 | 9.69 | TOP PICK |
| 0–2 | 17.0% | 4 | +50 | 9.18 | |
| 0–0 | 11.3% | 5 | +70 | 8.44 | |
| 0–3 | 10.3% | 4 | +70 | 7.59 | |
| 1–1 | 9.4% | 5 | +70 | 7.06 | |
| 1–2 | 7.7% | 4 | +70 | 5.73 | |
| 1–3 | 4.7% | 4 | +100 | 4.85 | |
| 0–4 | 4.6% | 4 | +100 | 4.82 | |
| 1–0 | 3.9% | 3 | +100 | 3.99 | |
| 1–4 | 2.1% | 4 | +100 | 2.19 |