Group IGroup
Iraq vs Norway
Wed 17 Jun, 17:00 UTC · Gillette Stadium, Boston
Home win (model)
64.8%
IRQ · ELO 1565
Draw (model)
24.5%
Away win (model)
10.6%
NOR · ELO 1688
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 8.68 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Iraq
1.36
Fair: 1.40 (71.5%)
-2.7% vs mkt
Draw
4.50
Fair: 5.16 (19.4%)
-12.8% vs mkt
Norway
9.00
Fair: 10.98 (9.1%)
-18.1% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5★
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
16%0.5
11%0.5
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
15%0.5
9%0.3
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
9%0.3
5%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.73 · λ_away = 0.57 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 16.4% | 3 | +50 | 8.68 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 11.0% | 5 | +70 | 8.25 | |
| 1–1 | 10.8% | 5 | +70 | 8.12 | |
| 2–0 | 15.1% | 3 | +50 | 7.98 | |
| 3–0 | 8.7% | 3 | +70 | 6.36 | |
| 2–1 | 8.5% | 3 | +70 | 6.23 | |
| 3–1 | 4.9% | 3 | +100 | 5.09 | |
| 0–1 | 4.7% | 4 | +100 | 4.88 | |
| 4–0 | 3.8% | 3 | +100 | 3.89 | |
| 1–2 | 2.8% | 4 | +100 | 2.90 |