Group IGroup
France vs Iraq
Thu 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC · Gillette Stadium, Boston
Home win (model)
21.9%
FRA · ELO 1860
Draw (model)
28.0%
Away win (model)
50.1%
IRQ · ELO 1565
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 9.98 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
France
10.00
Fair: 12.55 (8.0%)
-20.3% vs mkt
Draw
5.00
Fair: 5.86 (17.1%)
-14.7% vs mkt
Iraq
1.30
Fair: 1.33 (75.0%)
-2.6% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
9%0.5
12%0.5
10%0.4
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
7%0.2
13%0.7★
9%0.4
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
4%0.1
6%0.2
4%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
1%0.0
2%0.1
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 0.95 · λ_away = 1.55 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.3% | 5 | +70 | 9.98 | TOP PICK |
| 0–1 | 11.5% | 4 | +70 | 8.53 | |
| 0–2 | 9.9% | 4 | +70 | 7.30 | |
| 0–0 | 9.4% | 5 | +70 | 7.08 | |
| 1–2 | 9.4% | 4 | +70 | 6.93 | |
| 1–3 | 4.8% | 4 | +100 | 5.03 | |
| 1–0 | 6.6% | 3 | +70 | 4.82 | |
| 2–2 | 4.4% | 5 | +100 | 4.67 | |
| 2–1 | 5.7% | 3 | +70 | 4.19 | |
| 2–0 | 3.7% | 3 | +100 | 3.82 |