Group IGroup
Senegal vs Iraq
Thu 02 Jul, 17:00 UTC · Gillette Stadium, Boston
Home win (model)
46.4%
SEN · ELO 1700
Draw (model)
29.3%
Away win (model)
24.3%
IRQ · ELO 1565
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.38 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
8%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
12%0.4
14%0.7★
6%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
9%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
4%0.1
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.0
2%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.43 · λ_away = 0.97 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.8% | 5 | +70 | 10.38 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 11.7% | 3 | +70 | 8.53 | |
| 0–0 | 10.3% | 5 | +70 | 7.73 | |
| 2–0 | 9.3% | 3 | +70 | 6.76 | |
| 2–1 | 9.0% | 3 | +70 | 6.57 | |
| 0–1 | 7.5% | 4 | +70 | 5.57 | |
| 2–2 | 4.4% | 5 | +100 | 4.59 | |
| 3–0 | 4.4% | 3 | +100 | 4.55 | |
| 1–2 | 6.1% | 4 | +70 | 4.52 | |
| 0–2 | 4.3% | 4 | +100 | 4.44 |