Group JGroup
Argentina vs Algeria
Wed 17 Jun, 20:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
56.2%
ARG · ELO 1943
Draw (model)
26.0%
Away win (model)
17.8%
ALG · ELO 1645
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 9.28 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Argentina
1.70
Fair: 1.77 (56.6%)
-3.8% vs mkt
Draw
3.70
Fair: 4.07 (24.6%)
-9.0% vs mkt
Algeria
4.75
Fair: 5.32 (18.8%)
-10.7% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
9%0.4
5%0.2
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
12%0.4
12%0.6★
5%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
11%0.3
10%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
6%0.2
6%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.72 · λ_away = 0.87 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.4% | 5 | +70 | 9.28 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 11.8% | 3 | +70 | 8.58 | |
| 2–0 | 11.1% | 3 | +70 | 8.07 | |
| 2–1 | 9.7% | 3 | +70 | 7.05 | |
| 0–0 | 8.6% | 5 | +70 | 6.48 | |
| 1–2 | 4.9% | 4 | +100 | 5.11 | |
| 3–0 | 6.3% | 3 | +70 | 4.61 | |
| 2–2 | 4.2% | 5 | +100 | 4.43 | |
| 3–1 | 5.5% | 3 | +70 | 4.03 | |
| 0–1 | 5.4% | 4 | +70 | 4.02 |