Group JGroup
Argentina vs Austria
Fri 26 Jun, 17:00 UTC · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Home win (model)
37.5%
ARG · ELO 1943
Draw (model)
29.1%
Away win (model)
33.4%
AUT · ELO 1660
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.43 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Argentina
2.15
Fair: 2.27 (44.0%)
-5.4% vs mkt
Draw
3.25
Fair: 3.54 (28.2%)
-8.2% vs mkt
Austria
3.30
Fair: 3.60 (27.8%)
-8.3% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
9%0.4
8%0.3
6%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
9%0.3
14%0.7★
8%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
7%0.2
8%0.3
5%0.3
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
3%0.1
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.33 · λ_away = 1.24 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.9% | 5 | +70 | 10.43 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 9.0% | 5 | +70 | 6.72 | |
| 1–0 | 8.9% | 3 | +70 | 6.53 | |
| 2–1 | 8.4% | 3 | +70 | 6.12 | |
| 0–1 | 8.3% | 4 | +70 | 6.12 | |
| 1–2 | 7.8% | 4 | +70 | 5.79 | |
| 2–0 | 6.8% | 3 | +70 | 4.94 | |
| 0–2 | 5.9% | 4 | +70 | 4.36 | |
| 2–2 | 5.2% | 5 | +70 | 3.89 | |
| 3–1 | 3.7% | 3 | +100 | 3.82 |