Group JGroup
Algeria vs Jordan
Fri 26 Jun, 20:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
61.5%
ALG · ELO 1645
Draw (model)
25.4%
Away win (model)
13.1%
JOR · ELO 1535
Recommended pick
1–0
EV 10.78 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Algeria
4.50
Fair: 4.98 (20.1%)
-9.7% vs mkt
Draw
3.25
Fair: 3.52 (28.4%)
-7.7% vs mkt
Jordan
1.86
Fair: 1.94 (51.5%)
-4.1% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
15%0.4
12%0.6★
4%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
14%0.4
9%0.3
3%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
8%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.71 · λ_away = 0.67 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | 14.8% | 3 | +70 | 10.78 | TOP PICK |
| 2–0 | 13.5% | 3 | +70 | 9.89 | |
| 1–1 | 11.7% | 5 | +70 | 8.74 | |
| 0–0 | 10.3% | 5 | +70 | 7.73 | |
| 2–1 | 9.1% | 3 | +70 | 6.62 | |
| 3–0 | 7.7% | 3 | +70 | 5.64 | |
| 0–1 | 5.1% | 4 | +70 | 3.80 | |
| 3–1 | 5.2% | 3 | +70 | 3.77 | |
| 1–2 | 3.5% | 4 | +100 | 3.69 | |
| 4–0 | 3.3% | 3 | +100 | 3.40 |