Group AGroup
South Africa vs South Korea
Sun 28 Jun, 20:00 UTC · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
29.8%
RSA · ELO 1595
Draw (model)
30.3%
Away win (model)
39.9%
KOR · ELO 1685
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.75 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
11%0.4
8%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
9%0.3
14%0.7★
8%0.3
4%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
5%0.2
7%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
2%0.1
3%0.1
2%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.08 · λ_away = 1.29 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.3% | 5 | +70 | 10.75 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.7% | 5 | +70 | 8.01 | |
| 0–1 | 10.8% | 4 | +70 | 7.96 | |
| 1–0 | 8.8% | 3 | +70 | 6.44 | |
| 1–2 | 8.4% | 4 | +70 | 6.21 | |
| 0–2 | 7.8% | 4 | +70 | 5.74 | |
| 2–1 | 7.0% | 3 | +70 | 5.14 | |
| 2–2 | 4.5% | 5 | +100 | 4.76 | |
| 2–0 | 5.5% | 3 | +70 | 3.99 | |
| 1–3 | 3.6% | 4 | +100 | 3.74 |