Group KGroup
Portugal vs Congo DR
Thu 18 Jun, 17:00 UTC · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
48.3%
POR · ELO 1808
Draw (model)
28.5%
Away win (model)
23.2%
COD · ELO 1565
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.16 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Portugal
8.50
Fair: 10.50 (9.5%)
-19.1% vs mkt
Draw
4.50
Fair: 5.22 (19.2%)
-13.8% vs mkt
Congo DR
1.36
Fair: 1.40 (71.3%)
-3.0% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
7%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
11%0.3
14%0.7★
6%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
10%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
5%0.1
5%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.50 · λ_away = 0.97 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.5% | 5 | +70 | 10.16 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 11.5% | 3 | +70 | 8.39 | |
| 0–0 | 9.7% | 5 | +70 | 7.29 | |
| 2–0 | 9.5% | 3 | +70 | 6.96 | |
| 2–1 | 9.2% | 3 | +70 | 6.73 | |
| 0–1 | 7.0% | 4 | +70 | 5.17 | |
| 3–0 | 4.8% | 3 | +100 | 4.90 | |
| 3–1 | 4.6% | 3 | +100 | 4.75 | |
| 2–2 | 4.5% | 5 | +100 | 4.69 | |
| 1–2 | 6.0% | 4 | +70 | 4.41 |