Group KGroup
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
Thu 18 Jun, 20:00 UTC · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Home win (model)
52.8%
UZB · ELO 1545
Draw (model)
28.1%
Away win (model)
19.2%
COL · ELO 1720
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 9.86 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Uzbekistan
1.57
Fair: 1.63 (61.4%)
-3.5% vs mkt
Draw
3.95
Fair: 4.41 (22.7%)
-10.4% vs mkt
Colombia
5.50
Fair: 6.30 (15.9%)
-12.7% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
10%0.5
7%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
13%0.4
13%0.7★
5%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
11%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
6%0.2
5%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.54 · λ_away = 0.84 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.1% | 5 | +70 | 9.86 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 13.1% | 3 | +70 | 9.55 | |
| 2–0 | 11.0% | 3 | +70 | 8.05 | |
| 0–0 | 10.4% | 5 | +70 | 7.83 | |
| 2–1 | 9.2% | 3 | +70 | 6.73 | |
| 3–1 | 4.7% | 3 | +100 | 4.89 | |
| 0–1 | 6.5% | 4 | +70 | 4.84 | |
| 3–0 | 5.7% | 3 | +70 | 4.14 | |
| 2–2 | 3.9% | 5 | +100 | 4.05 | |
| 1–2 | 5.0% | 4 | +70 | 3.70 |