Group KGroup
Portugal vs Uzbekistan
Fri 26 Jun, 23:00 UTC · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Home win (model)
56.5%
POR · ELO 1808
Draw (model)
26.3%
Away win (model)
17.2%
UZB · ELO 1545
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 9.35 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
9%0.5
6%0.2
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
13%0.4
12%0.6★
5%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
11%0.3
10%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
6%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.68 · λ_away = 0.83 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.5% | 5 | +70 | 9.35 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 12.6% | 3 | +70 | 9.16 | |
| 2–0 | 11.5% | 3 | +70 | 8.39 | |
| 0–0 | 9.3% | 5 | +70 | 6.96 | |
| 2–1 | 9.5% | 3 | +70 | 6.95 | |
| 1–2 | 4.7% | 4 | +100 | 4.88 | |
| 3–0 | 6.4% | 3 | +70 | 4.70 | |
| 0–1 | 5.6% | 4 | +70 | 4.15 | |
| 2–2 | 3.9% | 5 | +100 | 4.13 | |
| 3–1 | 5.3% | 3 | +70 | 3.89 |