Group KGroup
Congo DR vs Colombia
Sat 27 Jun, 17:00 UTC · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Home win (model)
40.5%
COD · ELO 1565
Draw (model)
30.4%
Away win (model)
29.1%
COL · ELO 1720
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.76 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Congo DR
2.63
Fair: 2.84 (35.2%)
-7.3% vs mkt
Draw
3.10
Fair: 3.39 (29.5%)
-8.5% vs mkt
Colombia
2.63
Fair: 2.84 (35.2%)
-7.3% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
9%0.4
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
11%0.3
14%0.7★
7%0.3
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
8%0.2
8%0.3
4%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
3%0.1
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.29 · λ_away = 1.06 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.3% | 5 | +70 | 10.76 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.8% | 5 | +70 | 8.13 | |
| 1–0 | 11.0% | 3 | +70 | 8.04 | |
| 0–1 | 8.8% | 4 | +70 | 6.50 | |
| 2–1 | 8.4% | 3 | +70 | 6.15 | |
| 2–0 | 8.0% | 3 | +70 | 5.81 | |
| 1–2 | 6.9% | 4 | +70 | 5.10 | |
| 2–2 | 4.5% | 5 | +100 | 4.68 | |
| 0–2 | 5.3% | 4 | +70 | 3.95 | |
| 3–1 | 3.6% | 3 | +100 | 3.74 |