Group KGroup
Congo DR vs Uzbekistan
Fri 03 Jul, 17:00 UTC · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Home win (model)
37.6%
COD · ELO 1565
Draw (model)
30.5%
Away win (model)
31.9%
UZB · ELO 1545
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.82 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
9%0.4
6%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
10%0.3
14%0.7★
7%0.3
3%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
7%0.2
8%0.2
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
3%0.1
3%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.24 · λ_away = 1.12 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.4% | 5 | +70 | 10.82 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.7% | 5 | +70 | 8.06 | |
| 1–0 | 10.4% | 3 | +70 | 7.58 | |
| 0–1 | 9.3% | 4 | +70 | 6.86 | |
| 2–1 | 8.1% | 3 | +70 | 5.93 | |
| 1–2 | 7.4% | 4 | +70 | 5.44 | |
| 2–0 | 7.2% | 3 | +70 | 5.29 | |
| 2–2 | 4.6% | 5 | +100 | 4.79 | |
| 0–2 | 5.9% | 4 | +70 | 4.39 | |
| 3–1 | 3.4% | 3 | +100 | 3.46 |