Group LGroup
Ghana vs Panama
Fri 19 Jun, 17:00 UTC · NRG Stadium, Houston
Home win (model)
49.7%
GHA · ELO 1625
Draw (model)
28.9%
Away win (model)
21.4%
PAN · ELO 1575
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.17 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Ghana
1.85
Fair: 1.91 (52.3%)
-3.2% vs mkt
Draw
3.40
Fair: 3.62 (27.6%)
-6.2% vs mkt
Panama
4.60
Fair: 4.98 (20.1%)
-7.7% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
7%0.3
4%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
13%0.4
14%0.7★
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
10%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
5%0.2
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
2%0.1
2%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.47 · λ_away = 0.89 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.6% | 5 | +70 | 10.17 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 12.7% | 3 | +70 | 9.25 | |
| 0–0 | 10.7% | 5 | +70 | 8.00 | |
| 2–0 | 10.3% | 3 | +70 | 7.49 | |
| 2–1 | 9.1% | 3 | +70 | 6.64 | |
| 0–1 | 7.1% | 4 | +70 | 5.28 | |
| 3–1 | 4.5% | 3 | +100 | 4.60 | |
| 2–2 | 4.0% | 5 | +100 | 4.23 | |
| 1–2 | 5.5% | 4 | +70 | 4.04 | |
| 0–2 | 3.7% | 4 | +100 | 3.85 |