Group BGroup
Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Fri 12 Jun, 17:00 UTC · BMO Field, Toronto
Home win (model)
35.9%
CAN · ELO 1670
Draw (model)
30.4%
Away win (model)
33.6%
BIH · ELO 1620
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 26.97 · Rarity +70
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Canada
2.70
Fair: 2.83 (35.3%)
-4.7% vs mkt
Draw
3.15
Fair: 3.33 (30.0%)
-5.4% vs mkt
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2.75
Fair: 2.89 (34.6%)
-4.7% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:25:20.639Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 65
Draw: 117
Away win: 125
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%12.4
10%11.9
6%7.9
2%3.1
1%0.9
0%0.2
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
10%6.5
14%16.9★
8%9.5
3%3.7
1%1.1
0%0.3
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
7%4.4
8%5.2
5%5.4
2%2.2
1%0.7
0%0.2
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
3%1.8
3%2.1
2%1.2
1%0.8
0%0.3
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.5
1%0.6
1%0.4
0%0.1
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.1
0%0.2
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.21 · λ_away = 1.16 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.4% | 117 | +70 | 26.97 | TOP PICK |
| 0–0 | 10.6% | 117 | +70 | 19.84 | |
| 0–1 | 9.5% | 125 | +70 | 18.55 | |
| 1–2 | 7.6% | 125 | +70 | 14.89 | |
| 1–0 | 9.9% | 65 | +70 | 13.43 | |
| 0–2 | 6.3% | 125 | +70 | 12.29 | |
| 2–1 | 7.9% | 65 | +70 | 10.72 | |
| 2–2 | 4.6% | 117 | +100 | 10.03 | |
| 2–0 | 6.8% | 65 | +70 | 9.20 | |
| 1–3 | 3.0% | 125 | +100 | 6.67 |