⚽ WC26 MPP
Group BGroup

Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

Fri 12 Jun, 17:00 UTC · BMO Field, Toronto

Home win (model)
35.9%
CAN · ELO 1670
Draw (model)
30.4%
Away win (model)
33.6%
BIH · ELO 1620
Recommended pick
11
EV 26.97 · Rarity +70

Market Odds vs Fair Odds

Canada
2.70
Fair: 2.83 (35.3%)
-4.7% vs mkt
Draw
3.15
Fair: 3.33 (30.0%)
-5.4% vs mkt
Bosnia & Herzegovina
2.75
Fair: 2.89 (34.6%)
-4.7% vs mkt

Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:25:20.639Z · Source: the-odds-api

App Point Values

Home win: 65
Draw: 117
Away win: 125

Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.

Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix

Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV

↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%12.4
10%11.9
6%7.9
2%3.1
1%0.9
0%0.2
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
10%6.5
14%16.9
8%9.5
3%3.7
1%1.1
0%0.3
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
7%4.4
8%5.2
5%5.4
2%2.2
1%0.7
0%0.2
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
3%1.8
3%2.1
2%1.2
1%0.8
0%0.3
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.5
1%0.6
1%0.4
0%0.1
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.1
0%0.2
0%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.21 · λ_away = 1.16 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick

Top Scoreline Picks by EV

ScorelineProbabilityOutcome ptsRarity bonusEV
1114.4%117+7026.97TOP PICK
0010.6%117+7019.84
019.5%125+7018.55
127.6%125+7014.89
109.9%65+7013.43
026.3%125+7012.29
217.9%65+7010.72
224.6%117+10010.03
206.8%65+709.20
133.0%125+1006.67