Group LGroup
Croatia vs Panama
Sat 27 Jun, 23:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, New York
Home win (model)
9.2%
CRO · ELO 1710
Draw (model)
23.7%
Away win (model)
67.1%
PAN · ELO 1575
Recommended pick
0–1
EV 9.30 · Rarity +50
Market Odds vs Fair Odds
Croatia
1.70
Fair: 1.76 (56.7%)
-3.6% vs mkt
Draw
3.60
Fair: 3.93 (25.4%)
-8.5% vs mkt
Panama
5.00
Fair: 5.59 (17.9%)
-10.6% vs mkt
Fetched: 2026-06-03T10:54:48.340Z · Source: the-odds-api
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.6
17%0.7★
16%0.6
9%0.4
4%0.2
1%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
4%0.1
10%0.5
8%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
1%0.0
2%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 0.51 · λ_away = 1.76 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 | 17.2% | 4 | +50 | 9.30 | TOP PICK |
| 0–2 | 16.0% | 4 | +50 | 8.65 | |
| 0–0 | 11.2% | 5 | +70 | 8.41 | |
| 1–1 | 10.2% | 5 | +70 | 7.63 | |
| 0–3 | 9.4% | 4 | +70 | 6.97 | |
| 1–2 | 8.2% | 4 | +70 | 6.04 | |
| 1–3 | 4.8% | 4 | +100 | 4.99 | |
| 1–0 | 4.3% | 3 | +100 | 4.45 | |
| 0–4 | 4.2% | 4 | +100 | 4.32 | |
| 2–1 | 2.4% | 3 | +100 | 2.43 |