Group LGroup
Croatia vs Ghana
Fri 03 Jul, 20:00 UTC · NRG Stadium, Houston
Home win (model)
42.5%
CRO · ELO 1710
Draw (model)
30.0%
Away win (model)
27.5%
GHA · ELO 1625
Recommended pick
1–1
EV 10.63 · Rarity +70
App Point Values
Home win: 3
Draw: 5
Away win: 4
Edit from the Fixtures table once the app reveals point values.
Dixon-Coles Scoreline Matrix
Row = home goals, column = away goals · Cell = probability% / EV
↓H\A→
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
11%0.5
8%0.3
5%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
1
11%0.3
14%0.7★
7%0.3
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
2
8%0.3
9%0.3
4%0.2
2%0.1
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
3
4%0.1
4%0.1
2%0.1
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
4
1%0.0
1%0.0
1%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
5
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
6
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
7
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
8
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
0%0.0
λ_home = 1.34 · λ_away = 1.03 · Cell: probability% / EV · ★ = top EV pick
Top Scoreline Picks by EV
| Scoreline | Probability | Outcome pts | Rarity bonus | EV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.2% | 5 | +70 | 10.63 | TOP PICK |
| 1–0 | 11.2% | 3 | +70 | 8.16 | |
| 0–0 | 10.6% | 5 | +70 | 7.92 | |
| 2–1 | 8.7% | 3 | +70 | 6.32 | |
| 0–1 | 8.3% | 4 | +70 | 6.14 | |
| 2–0 | 8.4% | 3 | +70 | 6.12 | |
| 0–2 | 5.0% | 4 | +100 | 5.15 | |
| 1–2 | 6.7% | 4 | +70 | 4.93 | |
| 2–2 | 4.5% | 5 | +100 | 4.70 | |
| 3–1 | 3.9% | 3 | +100 | 4.00 |